Daily Market Note — 2026-09-14

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market opened the week unchanged while Gulf oil prices jumped and a new Iranian vessel-compliance list added to shipping risk — but the freight market itself has not yet visibly repriced.

No fresh Pakistan shredded transaction was reported Monday, leaving the market anchored at $418/MT CFR Port Qasim (the freshest verified trade, from 11 September) with a recent range of $417–420/MT and asks around $420, premium targets $425. Brent crude jumped to $107.33/bbl (up roughly 2.5% on the day) following fresh strikes near a Saudi oil pipeline and on shipping in the Gulf, and Iran’s maritime authority published a list of 77 vessels it says violated Strait of Hormuz transit protocols, warning insurers and marine-service providers against dealing with them. Hormuz commodity-vessel traffic stayed below its recent average over the weekend, and a commercial vessel was struck by a projectile in the strait on Sunday. Turkey’s import scrap market, meanwhile, held its recent breakout: a second independent assessor now confirms HMS 1&2 80:20 near $390/MT CFR, up roughly $10/MT on the week.

Key moves

• Pakistan imported shredded — no new Monday transaction; anchor holds at $418/MT CFR Port Qasim; working range $417–420/MT CFR; asks near $420, premium targets $425.
• Turkey — HMS 1&2 80:20 assessed near $390/MT CFR, up roughly $10/MT week on week, by a second independent source; rebar indicated $610–620/MT FOB, wire rod $625–635/MT FOB.
• Saudi Arabia — Hadeed, a major domestic mill, cut its scrap buying price by roughly $19/MT, a counter-signal that Gulf demand is not uniformly strengthening alongside Turkey.
• Pakistan domestic — H1 2026 ferrous-scrap imports ran roughly 11% higher year on year at ~1.67 million tonnes, even as crude-steel output fell roughly 26% year on year; mills are reported operating around 30–50% utilisation, with several shut. A leading mill raised ex-factory rebar by roughly $3.60/MT-equivalent (PKR 1,000/MT) from 10 September.
• Currency and fuel — the Pakistani rupee closed essentially flat against the US dollar; retail diesel and petrol prices held at recent elevated levels.

Freight and shipping

Oil gapped up sharply on fresh Gulf incidents, but no carrier has yet published a new surcharge tied to it — freight reconfirmation is today’s live question, not a settled fact.

• Strait of Hormuz: commodity-vessel traffic stayed below its recent average over the weekend; a commercial vessel was struck by a projectile on Sunday; Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority published a list of 77 vessels it says violated transit protocols, warning of fines, detention, or confiscation, and separately warning insurers, protection and indemnity clubs, and classification societies against servicing them.
• Saudi pipeline: the East-West oil pipeline outage remains a live risk, reported to threaten roughly 4% of global oil supply, with export-terminal inventories estimated to cover only a handful of days if the outage continues.
• Bab el-Mandeb: Houthi control around Perim Island continues to add risk to a corridor carrying a meaningful share of global trade.
• Oil: Brent traded around $107.33/bbl, WTI around $102.56/bbl, both up roughly 2.5% on the day.
• Destination operations: Port Qasim’s published shipping programme for 14 September shows active container and bulk vessel operations with no reported sailing, berthing, or shifting cancellations.
• Carrier surcharges: Middle East → Pakistan remains $2,050 per 20ft and $3,500 per 40ft/40HC/45HC. Far East Asia → Pakistan remains $1,000 per 20ft, $1,500 per 40ft/45ft today, stepping to $2,000 per 40ft/45ft from tomorrow, 15 September (South Korea from 18 September); the revision does not apply to spot bookings and no new 20ft figure has been published.

Supplier markets

A temporary UAE restriction on ferrous, copper, and aluminium scrap exports remains scheduled through 8 October, with possible exemptions for pre-existing contracts. The European Commission has dropped its previously discussed plan for a 15% aluminium-scrap export duty, reportedly over concerns raised by India, and is instead leaning on the existing Waste Shipment Regulation framework for future non-OECD scrap controls — this does not amount to a new export ban today. Pakistan remains among the countries that have applied to keep receiving specified non-hazardous EU waste streams, with the Commission’s first published list of authorised non-OECD countries still due by 21 November 2026; the EU’s separate ban on e-waste exports to non-OECD countries has been in force since 1 January 2025. Fastmarkets’ Pakistan shredded index remains on its new weekly (Friday) publication schedule, with the first assessment under the revised schedule due 18 September.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Latest official LME cash-settlement and three-month reference levels remain Friday’s, 11 September (markets were closed over the weekend; Monday’s intraday session traded broadly lower):

• Copper — cash $14,238.50/t, three-month $14,233/t; Monday’s session traded intraday around $14,065/t, down roughly 1.2%.
• Zinc — cash $4,015/t, three-month $3,872/t (a $143/t cash premium); Monday’s session traded intraday around $3,807/t, down roughly 1.9%, a three-week low.
• Aluminium — cash $3,274/t, three-month $3,250/t; Monday’s session traded intraday around $3,256/t.
• Nickel — cash $16,270/t, three-month $16,415/t (a contango); Monday’s intraday level was around $16,380/t.
• Lead — cash $1,854/t, three-month $1,897/t; Monday’s intraday level was around $1,873/t.

Glossary

• CFR — cost and freight; the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port, the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
• Port Qasim — Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal, near Karachi.
• Shredded — processed scrap of consistent size and density, the main containerised grade into Pakistan.
• HMS 1&2 80:20 — heavy melting scrap in a standard 80:20 grade mix, the benchmark bulk ferrous grade.
• PSS / ECS — peak season surcharge / emergency contingency surcharge, temporary carrier charges added to base ocean freight, quoted per container.
• Cash vs three-month (LME) — cash is the price for immediate delivery; three-month is the standard forward reference. When cash trades above three-month (“backwardation”), it usually signals tight near-term supply; the reverse (“contango”) usually signals ample near-term supply.
• Non-OECD waste-shipment rules — EU regulations governing which countries outside the OECD may receive specified waste exports, including scrap metal, from EU member states.