Live dashboardtape as of 3 Nov 2026 · rebuilt 3 Nov 2026
In-range forecast hit rate
70%
26 of 37 resolved sub-components landed in range
Mean abs error
$4.68/t
$— ex-outlier
Direction
—
18 of 37
Best call
$—/t
Turkey Shredded CFR (Kallanish)
Median abs error
$3.71/t
open forecasts: 2
How to read these numbers: every forecast we publish declares a price range, a central estimate, and exactly which published benchmarks will score it — before the target date, in writing, unchangeable afterwards. Hit rate is the share of resolved calls where the actual print landed inside the declared range. Direction is whether we called up versus down correctly from the prior print. Mean/median error is how far the actual landed from our central estimate, in dollars per tonne. Misses are never removed — the full ledger shows every call, including the ones that went wrong.
Today’s tape — physical publisher prints
Turkey HMS 80:20 (K)
$400.5
+2.00
Turkey shredded (K)
$420.5
+1.50
Iron ore KORE 61%
$91.02
+0.35
FM US-origin CFR Turkey
$403.05
+1.05 (0.26%)
US Midwest HRC ($/cwt)
$65.81
-0.52 (-0.78%)
World context — public series
Brent crude
$104.77/bbl
2026-11-02 · ICE Brent front-month @LCO.1 (CNBC)
USD strength
-0.56% vs 30d
2026-11-02 · ECB-derived USD proxy (frankfurter.app) — not ICE DXY
Gulf nav warnings
19
2026-11-03 · Active Gulf nav warnings, HYDROPAC subregion 62 (NGA MSI)
Forecast calibration — signed error vs central ($/t)
+$9.00
Turkey shredded
+$8.24
Turkey shredded
+$1.79
Pakistan shred 211
+$5.00
Turkey shredded
+$0.91
Turkey shredded
+$1.35
Pakistan shred 211
+$8.00
Turkey shredded
+$2.91
Turkey shredded
Each bar is one resolved forecast: the distance between what actually printed and the central estimate we published in advance. Bars above the line mean the market landed higher than our central; bars below mean lower. Short bars are good calls; tall bars are our misses, shown at full height.
Open forecasts
Pakistan shred 211 CFR Qasim
$416 c
target 6 Nov 2026 · range $409–422
Turkey shredded scrap CFR
$417 c
target 6 Nov 2026 · range $407–425
These are live calls awaiting their target dates — range and scoring rules already locked. When each target print publishes, the call resolves and moves to the record, hit or miss.
Track record — recent resolutions
| Target | Market | Benchmark | Range (c) | Actual | Hit | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Turkey shredded | Kallanish | $403–418 (c: $410) | $419.00 (30 Oct) | ✗ | +$9.00 |
| 2026-10-30 | Turkey shredded | Fastmarkets MB-STE-0095 | $403–418 (c: $410) | $418.24 (2 Nov, first print on or after target) | ✗ | +$8.24 |
| 2026-10-30 | Pakistan shred 211 | Fastmarkets MB-STE-0887 | $406–419 (c: $413) | $414.79 (30 Oct) | ✓ | +$1.79 |
| 2026-10-23 | Turkey shredded | Kallanish | $400–416 (c: $409) | $414.00 (23 Oct) | ✓ | +$5.00 |
| 2026-10-23 | Turkey shredded | Fastmarkets MB-STE-0095 | $400–416 (c: $409) | $409.91 (23 Oct) | ✓ | +$0.91 |
| 2026-10-23 | Pakistan shred 211 | Fastmarkets MB-STE-0887 | $408–420 (c: $414) | $415.35 (23 Oct) | ✓ | +$1.35 |
| 2026-10-16 | Turkey shredded | Kallanish | $398–416 (c: $407) | $415.00 (16 Oct) | ✓ | +$8.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | Turkey shredded | Fastmarkets MB-STE-0095 | $398–416 (c: $407) | $409.91 (16 Oct) | ✓ | +$2.91 |
Market analysis from TDC Ventures. Not trading advice. Prices are physical publisher/index prints (Kallanish, Fastmarkets, SteelOrbis); analyst commentary and futures references are excluded. Full scored record: Forecast track record. Auto-generated by build-dashboard.py — do not edit by hand.