Official Statistics Log
Hand-ingested observations from free official statistical sources (Worldsteel, USGS, TCUD, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Freightos FBX, and others). CONTEXT/STRUCTURE TIER ONLY — nothing here ever sets a price or resolves a forecast; physical publisher prints remain the only hard tier. Every entry carries full provenance: indicator, value, reference period, publication date, source, retrieval date. Evidence classes: verified number / stale / no data.
2026-09-27 — first pull (initiated ahead of the monthly cadence; china-miw PDF supply unreliable, so the regime engine needs sources that answer when called)
Worldsteel — August 2026 crude steel production ✅ VERIFIED NUMBERS
Source: World Steel Association press release, published 2026-09-24, Brussels. Reference period: August 2026. Retrieved 2026-09-27.
| Indicator | Aug 2026 | % y/y | Jan–Aug 2026 | % y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World crude steel (70 countries) | 144.2 Mt | −1.2% | 1,225.2 Mt | −0.7% |
| China | 74.6 Mt | −3.7% | 651.9 Mt | −3.1% |
| India | 14.8 Mt | +4.6% | 115.9 Mt | +6.0% |
| United States (e) | 7.3 Mt | +3.0% | 57.5 Mt | +5.5% |
| Türkiye | 3.4 Mt | −0.4% | 26.6 Mt | +6.8% |
| Middle East region | 3.7 Mt | −4.6% | 33.3 Mt | −7.8% |
| Viet Nam | 2.7 Mt | +36.4% | 20.6 Mt | +29.1% |
What this feeds:
- China regime engine — the production slot now has a monthly VERIFIED NUMBER independent of the china-miw PDFs. August: China crude steel −3.7% y/y, contraction deepening vs the Jan–Aug −3.1% run-rate. For the next regime call: production evidence = contracting, verified (Worldsteel, Aug 2026). This directly replaces the starving PDF-sourced slot.
- Turkey demand side: monthly output slightly down y/y (−0.4%) but YTD +6.8% — Turkish mills are running materially harder than last year, the structural backdrop under this quarter’s scrap-price strength. Citable publicly as “worldsteel, August 2026.”
- India +6.0% YTD supports the India-competes-for-scrap thesis; Viet Nam +29% worth a watch line — a fast-growing scrap-hungry buyer in the same basin as Bangladesh.
USGS Mineral Industry Surveys — Iron & Steel Scrap, December 2025 issue ✅ VERIFIED NUMBERS
Source: USGS National Minerals Information Center, MIS “Iron and Steel Scrap in December 2025,” published July 2026 (PDF fetches directly, no gate). Reference period: December 2025 + 2025 annual review. Retrieved 2026-09-27. NOTE: this is the newest issue — USGS is mid-transition to ScienceBase and the series runs ~7 months behind; treat as ANNUAL-STRUCTURE tier, not monthly signal. USGS will also discontinue tables 2, 3, 5, 8 after this issue.
| Indicator | 2025 full year | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| US steel-scrap consumption | 56.5 Mt | +3% |
| US scrap net receipts | 53.3 Mt | −1% |
| US scrap exports | 12.4 Mt | −17% |
| US scrap imports | 5.01 Mt | +6% |
| US raw steel production | 81.9 Mt (76.7% cap. util.) | +3% |
| HMS No.1 avg price (Fastmarkets, ref. only) | $320.24/t (Dec: $318.77, +5% m/m) | ≈flat vs $319.90 |
December 2025 export structure: Turkey 43% of US export tonnage (432 kt), Thailand 10%, Mexico 7%; Pakistan 36 kt, Bangladesh 37 kt, India 55 kt.
What this feeds: the origin-side thesis gets its first verified anchor — US mills consumed MORE scrap (+3%) while exporting 17% LESS. Domestic EAF pull is tightening the exportable surplus at the margin, structural support under US-origin CFR offers. Turkey’s 43% share confirms it remains the swing buyer of US material. Citable publicly as “USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, December 2025.”
TCUD (Turkish Steel Producers’ Association) — February 2026 press release ✅ VERIFIED NUMBERS (lagging)
Source: celik.org.tr English press release, published 2026-02-27. Reference period: February 2026 / Jan–Feb 2026. Retrieved 2026-09-27. NOTE: the English release series stalls at Feb 2026 — seven months behind. Worldsteel covers Türkiye output monthly and fresher, so TCUD’s remaining unique value (scrap-import tonnages, export destinations) is stale until a newer release appears. Check the Turkish-language side at the monthly ingest.
Feb 2026: Turkey crude steel 3.0 Mt (+3.4% y/y); Jan–Feb 6.4 Mt (+4.7%). Final-product consumption Jan–Feb 6.7 Mt (+4.1%). Steel product exports Jan–Feb 2.0 Mt (−13.5%), imports 2.7 Mt (−10.8%). EU exports −36% to 540.5 kt; Middle East −38% to 278.7 kt ahead of the EU safeguard change of 1 July.
What this feeds: structural confirmation of the Turkey story the tape already shows — mills producing more for the DOMESTIC market while both export legs collapse. A mill base running +4.7% with consumption +4.1% is a scrap-hungry mill base regardless of where the steel goes.
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics — external trade ✅ SOURCE LIVE (numbers at monthly ingest)
Source: pbs.gov.pk/external-trade-statistics, Monthly Summary section. Retrieved 2026-09-27. Newest goods summary: August 2026 (Summary-August-2026.xlsx) — genuinely current, ~4-week lag, monthly XLSX with direct stable URLs (pbs.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Summary-August-2026.xlsx pattern).
No numbers ingested this pull — the summaries are XLSX downloads, which belong in the hands-on monthly session where the HS-7204 line can be pulled properly rather than skimmed. Source verified reachable, current, and free. The trade dashboard (tradedashboard.data.gov.pk) is login-gated; ignore it, the XLSX series is enough.
Freightos FBX — weekly ocean rates ✅ VERIFIED NUMBERS — REPLACES DREWRY (row 6)
Source: Freightos weekly freight update (freightos.com/freight-resources/, filter “Freight Trends & Data”), issue of 2026-09-15 by Judah Levine, Head of Research. Reference period: week to 2026-09-12. Retrieved 2026-09-27. Weekly article publishes every Tuesday, free, full FBX lane prints in text. The FBX terminal itself is login-gated; the weekly article is the ingest path.
Week of Sept 15: Asia–N.Europe (FBX11) ≈$4,300/FEU (−3%), Asia–Med (FBX13) ≈$4,200/FEU (−12%), both easing to ≈$3,800/FEU daily; Asia–USWC (FBX01) +3%, Asia–USEC (FBX03) +2%. Context: >25% of Asia–Europe capacity back through the Red Sea in September; Med lane down $3,000/FEU from July peak.
What this feeds: container freight DIRECTION for the weekly briefing — Europe-bound easing fast on Red Sea capacity restoration, transpacific still at peak. Direction only, never a lane rate (playbook rule). Citable publicly as “Freightos Baltic Index, week of [date].”
US Census — HS 7204 exports by destination, June 2026 ✅ VERIFIED NUMBERS (values; tonnage pending)
Source: US Census Bureau international trade API (timeseries/intltrade/exports/hs), E_COMMODITY=7204, HS4 level. Reference period: June 2026. Retrieved 2026-09-28, first authenticated pull. NOTE: ALL_VAL_MO (US$) verified; QTY_1_MO returned 0 at this level — the tonnage variable needs identifying at the next ingest before quantity claims are made. Values only until then.
June 2026 US ferrous-scrap (HS 7204) export values, US$: total all countries 620.4M. Top destinations: Thailand 132.7M, Turkey 112.7M, India 61.7M, Vietnam 49.4M, Pakistan 47.9M, Taiwan 29.7M, Peru 25.6M, Greece 23.6M, Bangladesh 15.2M, EU 45.7M.
What this feeds: the corridor map’s US legs now have official monthly ground truth. Two reads worth carrying: Thailand ahead of Turkey by value in June — Southeast Asia’s pull on US material is not a footnote; and Pakistan at ~$48M/month of US scrap is a real corridor, not a rounding error, sitting alongside the desk’s Qasim thesis. Citable publicly as “US Census Bureau, June 2026.”
Source status ledger (updated 2026-09-28)
| Source | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Worldsteel monthly | 🟢 LIVE | Aug 2026 ingested 2026-09-27; monthly, ~3 weeks after month-end |
| USGS iron & steel scrap MIS | 🟢 LIVE (annual-structure tier) | Dec 2025 issue ingested 2026-09-27; PDF fetches directly; series runs ~7 months behind — check for the Jan 2026 issue at monthly ingests |
| TCUD / TÜİK | 🟢 LIVE (lagging) | TCUD English releases fetch cleanly but stall at Feb 2026 (ingested); TÜİK data portal is JS-gated even in a browser — TCUD is the working door. Check Turkish-language releases for fresher months |
| Pakistan Bureau of Statistics | 🟢 LIVE | Reachable and CURRENT to Aug 2026; monthly Summary XLSX, stable URLs; HS-7204 line pulled at the monthly hand-ingest |
| Freightos FBX | 🟢 LIVE — Drewry’s replacement | Weekly update article, free, full lane prints; Sept 15 issue ingested. Weekly cadence possible if the freight slot ever needs it |
| US Census (HS 7204 exports) | 🟢 LIVE — first pull ingested 2026-09-28 | June 2026 values verified via authenticated API; identify the tonnage variable at the Oct 3 ingest (QTY_1_MO returns 0 at HS4) |
| Drewry WCI | 🔴 RETIRED from the shortlist | Public page serves a 21 May snapshot in late September. Do NOT ingest. FBX row supersedes it |
| Eurostat Comext | 🟡 API BLOCKED via this channel | Both dissemination-API endpoints return empty through web fetch (2026-09-27, two attempts). Use the Easy Comext web UI by hand at the Oct/Nov session instead; quarterly cadence suffices for the EU-WSR thesis |
Next scheduled pull: Saturday 2026-10-03 (monthly official-stats ingest, Commands To Run.md Part 4). Six of seven sources now LIVE AND INGESTED; Eurostat pending a hand session via the Easy Comext UI.
2026-10-06 — context-tier automation added (sources 8–9)
| Source | What | Verified | Where it lands | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastmarkets free insights (8) | Full free ferrous-scrap archive + monthly US Scrap Trends Outlook survey, Dec 2022 → Oct 2026 (41 issues) | 2026-10-06, open WordPress API | wiki/synthesis/fastmarkets-free-insights.md; store series fm_us_scrap_*; Numbers page block | context — sentiment, never a price |
| GHY trade-compliance (9) | Section 232/301/IEEPA, AD/CVD, TRQ and Canada steel measures, title-filtered | 2026-10-06, open WordPress API | wiki/synthesis/policy-watch.md; feeds Section 232 concept page | context — policy, never a price |
2026-10-10 — Türkiye scrap imports by origin (TÜİK data, read from public trade press)
TÜİK — Türkiye scrap imports, January–August 2026 ✅ VERIFIED NUMBERS (secondary retrieval)
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) foreign trade data, as printed in a free SteelOrbis article published 2026-10-01 (“Turkey’s scrap imports rise 4.0 percent in January-August 2026 despite August slowdown”). Reference period: August 2026 and January–August 2026. Retrieved 2026-10-10. NOTE: this is TÜİK’s data read from a trade-press article, not pulled from TÜİK — the TÜİK portal is JS-gated (status ledger above). Origin tonnages are rounded here to the nearest thousand tonnes; the “change, kt” and “share” columns are our arithmetic on the article’s figures.
| Indicator | Value | % y/y |
|---|---|---|
| Scrap imports, Jan–Aug 2026 | 12.73 Mt | +4.0% |
| Scrap import value, Jan–Aug 2026 | US$5.02 bn | +9.0% |
| Scrap imports, Aug 2026 | 1.40 Mt | +0.5% (−15.7% m/m) |
| Scrap import value, Aug 2026 | US$561.89 M | +11.5% (−18.6% m/m) |
| Origin | Jan–Aug 2026, kt | Jan–Aug 2025, kt | % y/y | Change, kt | Share of 12.73 Mt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 2,483 | 2,315 | +7.2% | +168 | 19.5% |
| United Kingdom | 1,497 | 1,434 | +4.3% | +62 | 11.8% |
| Netherlands | 1,456 | 1,963 | −25.8% | −507 | 11.4% |
| Romania | 983 | 618 | +59.1% | +365 | 7.7% |
| Belgium | 941 | 967 | −2.7% | −26 | 7.4% |
| Russia | 691 | 524 | +31.8% | +167 | 5.4% |
| Denmark | 651 | 640 | +1.8% | +12 | 5.1% |
| Lithuania | 647 | 559 | +15.7% | +88 | 5.1% |
| France | 429 | 298 | +43.8% | +131 | 3.4% |
| Germany | 424 | 398 | +6.4% | +25 | 3.3% |
Top ten together: 10.20 Mt, about 80% of the total.
Half-year reference from the same series (SteelOrbis article published 2026-08-04, same retrieval path): January–June 2026 scrap imports 9.67 Mt (+3.1%), value US$3.76 bn (+5.8%); June alone 1.59 Mt (+31.3% y/y).
What this feeds:
- Turkey origin mix — the first verified tonnage-by-origin table in this log. The United States is still the largest single origin, about one tonne in five. The Netherlands lost about half a million tonnes on the year; Romania and Russia together gained slightly more than that (+532 kt). The figures show the shift; they do not show its cause.
- Value rose faster than tonnage (+9.0% against +4.0%), so the average cost per imported tonne was higher than a year earlier. Direction only: no unit value is derived here and none is a price.
- Lithuania +15.7% and Germany +6.4% into Türkiye for the eight months, after both were lower at the half-year — Baltic and German origins regained ground in July and August.
- Citable publicly as “Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), January–August 2026, as reported by SteelOrbis.”
Source status — addition to the ledger above (2026-10-10)
| Source | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| TÜİK scrap imports by origin | 🟢 LIVE through a second door | A free SteelOrbis article prints TÜİK’s monthly scrap-import tonnage and value, with the top ten origins, about five weeks after month-end (January–June on 4 Aug, January–August on 1 Oct). Use at the monthly ingest; always label as TÜİK data read from trade press. TCUD remains the door for production and consumption |
Still not pulled: Eurostat Comext (EU HS 7204 exports by destination) and the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics HS 7204 line. Both remain the open items for the EU export-rule question.