TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-09

4 min read

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-09

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market still has no openly visible numeric price. The CFR Port Qasim shredded price (Fastmarkets, index MB-STE-0887) moved to a Friday-only schedule from September, so today is a print day, but the number sits behind the publisher’s subscription. Two other Pakistan shredded assessments (BigMint, SMM) carry 8 October dates with values gated, and no concluded Pakistan shredded trade with a verified 9 October price has surfaced. The clearest public signal today is from a competing destination: Türkiye’s deep-sea scrap market is quiet. Oil eased intraday, but shipping costs have not followed it down.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imported shredded — no public numeric assessment or verified concluded trade; the Friday index print is not openly visible.
  • Türkiye HMS 1&2 (80:20) — a trade publication assessed North European-origin material near $395/MT CFR and US-origin near $399.72–402/MT CFR on 9 October, with no new bookings this week and weak rebar sales cited. These are assessments, not concluded deals, and they are a reference for a different destination rather than for Pakistan.
  • Rupee — the PKR closed at about 277.00/USD on 9 October, from 277.01 the previous day.
  • Pakistan fuel — high-speed diesel is PKR 395.72/litre for 9 October, up PKR 0.78; petrol is PKR 398.96/litre, up PKR 2.31.
  • Oil — Brent traded near $103.18/bbl and WTI near $91.00/bbl at about 13:28 GMT (intraday), lower on comments about US–Iran talks and China resuming refined-fuel exports.

Freight and shipping

  • Crude-tanker rates are not container rates. Chartering a 2-million-barrel tanker from the US Gulf to China was reported near $80 million, with some tanker routes more than 300% above mid-August. That is oil-tanker economics and says nothing direct about scrap container freight.
  • Hormuz traffic remains thin. Seven commodity vessels crossed the strait on 6 October, the fewest since 23 July, and crude flow is about 74% of its pre-war level. The public Gulf navigation-warning count is unchanged at 19; it measures formal warnings, not transits or attacks.
  • Carrier surcharge, inland only. Maersk’s 20% emergency fuel surcharge from 12 October applies to qualifying UK and Ireland inland transport, not to ocean freight.
  • Port Qasim lists four planned sailings and six planned berthings for 9 October (oil, LPG, coal and general cargo). Scheduled movements are not evidence that any particular scrap container has cleared.

Supplier markets

  • UAE — Dubai Customs Notice 13/2026 (selected ferrous scrap codes under 7204, copper scrap 74040000, aluminium scrap 76020000) passed its initial 8 October end-date. It renews automatically unless cancelled, and no public cancellation was found. It applies to Dubai, not the whole UAE.
  • EU — the consultation on the Commission’s draft list of non-OECD countries authorised to receive EU waste closes 16 October 2026. The draft assessment does not currently support authorising ferrous and non-ferrous metal waste for Pakistan. Restrictions on covered exports would apply from 21 May 2027. This is a draft, not final law. EU exports of electrical and electronic waste to non-OECD countries have been prohibited since 1 January 2025.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Official LME three-month prices for 8 October: copper $14,417/MT, aluminium $3,069/MT, zinc $3,737/MT, nickel $15,600/MT, lead $1,874/MT, tin $53,050/MT. LME copper stocks fell 4,650 t to 235,225 t. China has raised refined-zinc exports while the LME zinc market stays comparatively tight, and the proposed Anglo American–Teck merger faces Chinese scrutiny over copper concentrate supply. Pricing to an exact LME reference and fixing time remains the sound default.

Glossary

  • CFR — cost and freight: the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port; the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
  • CFR Port Qasim shredded price (MB-STE-0887) — the Fastmarkets index for shredded scrap delivered to Port Qasim, Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal near Karachi.
  • HMS 1&2 (80:20) — heavy melting steel grades 1 and 2 blended 80:20, the main deep-sea scrap grade into Türkiye.
  • HSD — high-speed diesel, the fuel price used for inland trucking costs.
  • LME — London Metal Exchange, the benchmark venue behind most base-metal scrap pricing formulas.
  • Backwardation — cash price above the three-month price, a sign of tight near-term supply.

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