TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-08

4 min read

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-08

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market still has no openly visible numeric price. The CFR Port Qasim shredded price (Fastmarkets, index MB-STE-0887) is published weekly and its number is not shown on the public product page; the next scheduled print is Friday 9 October. A second assessment for Pakistan imported shredded carries a 7 October date with its value gated, and the Punjab domestic shredded series last showed a “Weak” sentiment flag (6 October), a reading on domestic demand rather than an import price. Today’s main moves are outside the price tape: oil rebounded sharply and Strait of Hormuz transits fell to their lowest in over two months.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imported shredded — no public numeric assessment or concluded trade identified; next scheduled index print is 9 October.
  • Rupee — the PKR closed at about 277.01/USD on 8 October, from 277.02 the previous day.
  • Pakistan fuel — high-speed diesel is PKR 394.94/litre for 8 October, down PKR 0.91; petrol is PKR 396.65/litre, up PKR 1.82.
  • Oil — December Brent traded near $104.75/bbl and WTI near $92.28/bbl at 12:05 GMT on 8 October (intraday), up about 4.5% on tanker attacks and temporary US Gulf output shutdowns.

Freight and shipping

  • Hormuz traffic fell. Kpler counted seven commodity-vessel crossings of the strait on 6 October, the fewest since 23 July, recovering to ten on 7 October. Oil volumes crossing are put at about 10.1 million barrels a day, roughly 74% of pre-war levels; higher exports via the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea partly offset the shortfall, so regional export totals and strait transits should not be conflated.
  • The public Gulf navigation-warning count remains at 19, unchanged despite the drop in crossings. It measures formal warnings, not transits or attacks, so it neither confirms nor contradicts the traffic data.
  • A carrier surcharge is coming, but it is inland-only. Maersk’s 20% emergency fuel surcharge from 12 October applies to UK and Ireland inland transport, not to ocean freight. Its separate North Europe/Mediterranean-to-Pakistan peak-season surcharge (USD 300 per 20-foot and USD 500 per 40-foot dry container, effective 15 August until further notice) is unchanged.
  • Port Qasim lists one planned sailing and three planned berthings for 8 October, covering container, coal and palm-oil movements. Scheduled movements only.
  • A Qatari LNG tanker has crossed Hormuz and Pakistani media expect the cargo within three to five days. That is an expectation, not a confirmed discharge.

Supplier markets

  • UAE — Dubai Customs Notice 13/2026, covering selected ferrous scrap codes under 7204, copper scrap (74040000) and aluminium scrap (76020000), reaches its stated 8 October checkpoint. The notice renews automatically unless a cancellation is issued; none had been located. It applies to Dubai, not the whole UAE.
  • EU — the consultation on the Commission’s draft list of non-OECD countries authorised to receive EU waste closes 16 October 2026. The draft does not currently include Pakistan, India or Bangladesh for metal waste. The first list is due by 21 November 2026, and restrictions on covered exports would apply from 21 May 2027. This is a draft, not current law. The Bureau of International Recycling has asked members for evidence by 9 October.
  • Turkey — a US-origin HMS 80:20 CFR Iskenderun assessment dated 8 October carries a “Moderate” sentiment flag; the number is gated.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Official LME three-month prices for 7 October: copper $14,422/MT, aluminium $3,114/MT, zinc $3,756/MT, nickel $15,840/MT, lead $1,884/MT, tin $54,150/MT. Copper cash was $14,510, an $88 backwardation, and exchange copper stocks fell 3,100 t to 239,875 t. On 8 October copper traded near $14,495/MT at 09:30 GMT (intraday), after an earlier high of $14,646.50, as Chinese buyers returned from their holiday and a strike began at Chile’s Centinela mine. China’s refined-zinc exports are rising while the LME zinc market stays comparatively tight. Pricing to an exact LME reference and fixing time remains the sound default.

Glossary

  • CFR — cost and freight: the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port; the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
  • CFR Port Qasim shredded price (MB-STE-0887) — the Fastmarkets index for shredded scrap delivered to Port Qasim, Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal near Karachi.
  • PSS — peak-season surcharge, a carrier charge added to base freight.
  • HSD — high-speed diesel, the fuel price used for inland trucking costs.
  • LME — London Metal Exchange, the benchmark venue behind most base-metal scrap pricing formulas.
  • Backwardation — cash price above the three-month price, a sign of tight near-term supply.

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