TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-07

4 min read

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-07

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market still has no fresh, openly visible physical price. Two separate assessments — one from SMM, one from BigMint — were published for 6 October but their numeric values remain gated. BigMint’s domestic Punjab shredded assessment, also dated 6 October, carries a “Weak” sentiment tag, a signal on domestic demand rather than a Port Qasim import price. The next scheduled published CFR Port Qasim shredded print (Fastmarkets, index MB-STE-0887, Fridays only since 11 September) is due 9 October. Until a dated, executable transaction appears, any offer level circulating in the market should be treated as unconfirmed.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imported shredded — no openly visible numeric assessment or concluded trade today; the next scheduled index print is Friday 9 October.
  • Rupee — the PKR closed at about 277.02/USD on 7 October, little changed from 277.05 the prior day.
  • Pakistan diesel (HSD) — cut to PKR 395.85/litre for 7 October, down PKR 1.91; petrol rose PKR 1.19 to PKR 394.83/litre.
  • Oil — Brent traded around $101.87/bbl and WTI around $89.66/bbl on 7 October, recovering from levels below $100 seen earlier in the week.
  • Base metals — official three-month LME prices for 6 October: copper $14,434/MT, aluminium $3,148.50/MT, zinc $3,766/MT, nickel $15,720/MT, lead $1,880/MT. Copper was reported trading near $14,405 intraday on 7 October.

Freight and shipping

  • Maritime risk escalated this week. Reporting puts tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz at their highest weekly level since the current regional conflict began — at least 12 incidents involving oil, LNG or LPG tankers between 28 September and 5 October — and one official has said routes considered illegal will be blocked. Separately, fighting in Yemen intensified again, with attacks reported near Aden airport close to the Bab el-Mandeb corridor.
  • The public Gulf navigation-warning count, a different and more conservative measure of maritime risk, has not moved and remains at the same level it has held for several weeks. The two signals should be read as measuring different things, not as confirming or contradicting each other.
  • Port Qasim continues to operate normally, with six vessel departures and five berthings scheduled for 7 October, including container, coal, palm oil and cement activity.
  • Shipping costs remain elevated, and war-risk, security and insurance components should be treated as separate line items from base freight and bunker costs.

Supplier markets

  • Pakistan — buyer caution remains the most reliable public signal, reinforced by the “Weak” domestic Punjab sentiment noted above.
  • UAE — Dubai Customs Notice 13/2026, restricting specified ferrous, copper and aluminium scrap HS codes, remains in force through 8 October 2026 and is reported to renew automatically unless a cancellation notice is issued. No cancellation notice had been located as of this note.
  • EU — the consultation on the European Commission’s draft list of non-OECD countries authorised to receive EU waste remains open until 16 October 2026. The current draft does not authorise Pakistan to receive EU metal waste, on the basis that conditions for environmentally sound management were not demonstrated to the Commission’s satisfaction. This is a draft position, not current law. The first authorised-country list is expected by 21 November 2026; covered exports to non-OECD countries not on that list become prohibited from 21 May 2027. EU exports of e-waste to non-OECD countries have been prohibited since 1 January 2025.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Official three-month LME levels for 6 October: copper $14,434/MT, aluminium $3,148.50/MT, zinc $3,766/MT, nickel $15,720/MT, lead $1,880/MT. Exchange stocks fell for copper, aluminium, lead and nickel over the latest session, while zinc stocks rose slightly. Copper remains sensitive to thin inventories. With prices moving intraday, formula-based pricing tied to an exact LME reference, fixing date and fixing time remains the sound default for scrap buyers and sellers alike.

Glossary

  • CFR — cost and freight: the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port; the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
  • CFR Port Qasim shredded price (MB-STE-0887) — the Fastmarkets index for shredded scrap delivered to Port Qasim, Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal near Karachi.
  • Shredded (ISRI 211) — processed scrap of consistent size and density.
  • HSD — high-speed diesel, the fuel price used for inland trucking costs.
  • LME — London Metal Exchange, the benchmark venue behind most base-metal scrap pricing formulas.
  • Nav warnings — formal maritime navigation warnings issued for a region; a narrower, more conservative measure of risk than incident or attack counts.

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