TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-06

4 min read

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-06

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market still has no fresh physical price. The latest published figure for the published CFR Port Qasim shredded price (Fastmarkets, index MB-STE-0887) is $415.61/MT. It is dated 1 October and was carried in Fastmarkets’ 2 October issue; no newer print has been published. Fastmarkets publishes this index on Fridays only, a schedule in place since 11 September. A market report figure of $440–445/MT is dated January 2024 and should not be read as a current level. Buyers remain cautious amid weak steel demand, and the market is waiting for concluded trades before any higher level can be confirmed.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imported shredded — index $415.61/MT (assessed 1 Oct, the last print on file). No concluded trade at a higher level has been verified.
  • Oil — sources disagree on 6 October. One report puts Brent at about $98.48/bbl after a fall of nearly 2%; an ICE front-month series shows about $100.58, up slightly from $100.32 on 5 October. We are not calling a direction until a settled close is confirmed.
  • Base metals — latest completed three-month LME prices (5 October): copper $14,366/MT, aluminium $3,118/MT, zinc $3,714/MT, nickel $15,690/MT, lead $1,872/MT. Copper was reported trading nearer $14,430 intraday on 6 October, which is not yet confirmed by a settlement.
  • Rupee — the PKR closed around 277.05/USD on 6 October by one source; another feed shows about 276.50. Sources differ by about half a rupee.
  • Pakistan diesel (HSD) — PKR 397.76/litre for 6 October, down PKR 1.88, the basis for inland trucking costs.

Freight and shipping

  • Gulf crude exports have recovered: crude and condensate reached about 91% of pre-war levels in September, while refined-product exports stayed near 60%. Saudi Arabia is moving substantial crude through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, reducing dependence on Hormuz.
  • Shipping costs remain very high. Logistics and insurance are now the main constraint, so lower crude does not automatically mean lower freight. War-risk, security, bunker and insurance should be quoted as separate components of any CFR price.
  • Maritime risk — the public Gulf navigation-warning count is 19, unchanged from the prior sessions.
  • Port Qasim is operating normally, with four departures and five berthings scheduled for 6 October.

Supplier markets

  • Pakistan — buyer caution is the most reliable public signal. The offer levels reported in recent notes should be treated as unverified until a dated supplier quote or a concluded trade confirms them.
  • UAE — Dubai Customs Notice 13/2026 restricts specified ferrous, copper and aluminium scrap HS codes and remains in force through 8 October 2026. An exemption route exists for eligible shipments. Reports indicate it renews automatically unless cancelled; the notice text has not been independently verified.
  • EU — the consultation on the European Commission’s draft list of non-OECD countries authorised to receive EU waste stays open until 16 October 2026. The current draft does not authorise Pakistan for ferrous or non-ferrous metal waste. This is a draft, not current law. The first authorised-country list is expected by 21 November 2026; covered exports to non-OECD countries not on that list are prohibited from 21 May 2027. EU exports of e-waste to non-OECD countries have been prohibited since 1 January 2025.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Latest completed three-month LME levels are copper $14,366/MT, aluminium $3,118/MT, zinc $3,714/MT, nickel $15,690/MT and lead $1,872/MT. China is exporting more refined zinc into a tight LME market while Western zinc smelting remains under pressure. Copper remains sensitive to thin inventories. With prices moving intraday, formula-based pricing tied to the exact LME reference, fixing date and fixing time remains the sound default.

Glossary

  • CFR — cost and freight: the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port; the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
  • CFR Port Qasim shredded price (MB-STE-0887) — the Fastmarkets index for shredded scrap delivered to Port Qasim, Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal near Karachi.
  • Shredded (ISRI 211) — processed scrap of consistent size and density.
  • HSD — high-speed diesel, the fuel price used for inland trucking costs.
  • LME — London Metal Exchange, the benchmark venue behind most base-metal scrap pricing formulas.
  • Backwardation (cash over three-month) — when the cash price trades above the three-month price, which signals tight near-term supply.

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