TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-02

3 min read

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-02

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market sent mixed signals today: the published weekly index eased to a fresh low near $415.60/MT CFR Port Qasim, while a separate market report cited supplier offers jumping to $440–445/MT, up $4–6/MT on the week. That is a wide gap between a published benchmark and a reported asking price, and the two should not be averaged. No concluded Pakistan shredded trade at the higher level was verified today. The Pakistani rupee strengthened slightly and diesel fell further, improving inland trucking costs even as the ferrous picture stayed unsettled.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imported shredded — the latest published weekly index printed near $415.60/MT CFR Qasim, a new low for the series; a separate market report cites fresh supplier offers of $440–445/MT. The roughly $25–29/MT gap between the two is the widest recorded this run and argues for treating the higher figure as an asking price rather than a market level until a transaction confirms it.
  • Oil — Brent settled near $102/bbl and WTI near $91/bbl after European countries agreed to release diesel reserves.
  • Currency and fuel — the Pakistani rupee closed near 277.07 per US dollar, a small strengthening move. Diesel fell again to PKR 399.34 per litre (petrol rose to PKR 390.66), the fourth consecutive session below PKR 400, which continues to lower inland trucking costs.

Freight and shipping

  • Oil and diesel: the European diesel-reserve release eased refined-product prices; this is a supply-side easing signal on diesel, not a container-freight or war-risk signal, and should not be read as ocean freight normalising.
  • Port Qasim: active — container, palm-oil, LPG, ethylene and phosphoric-acid movements continued, with vessels departing and berthing on schedule; no congestion or closures reported.
  • General guidance: ocean freight should be treated as a separate negotiation from crude oil moves; carriers should be asked for fresh rates rather than assuming lower oil is already reflected in bunker surcharges.

Supplier markets

  • Offer levels: the gap between the published index and reported supplier offers widened sharply today, with suppliers citing higher freight as part of the increase. Buyers remain cautious.
  • UAE: a temporary restriction on specified scrap exports out of the UAE remains in force through 8 October 2026 and renews automatically unless cancelled.
  • EU: the consultation on the European Commission’s draft non-OECD waste-export list stays open until 16 October 2026. The Commission’s current draft assessment does not recommend authorising Pakistan for ferrous or non-ferrous metal-waste imports from the EU under the new regime. This remains a draft, not current law; EU exports of e-waste to non-OECD countries are already prohibited.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Published LME official three-month reference levels today included copper around $14,450/MT, aluminium around $3,210/MT, zinc around $3,840/MT, nickel around $16,050/MT, and lead around $1,890/MT. Base-metal prices remain elevated by recent standards despite volatility over the past month, reinforcing the case for formula-based pricing tied to exact exchange references rather than headline prices.

Glossary

  • CFR — cost and freight; the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port, the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
  • Port Qasim — Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal, near Karachi.
  • Shredded (ISRI 211) — processed scrap of consistent size and density, the main containerised grade into Pakistan.
  • HSD — high-speed diesel, the main fuel cost for inland trucking in Pakistan.
  • LME — London Metal Exchange, the benchmark venue for base-metal prices used in scrap pricing formulas.
  • Non-OECD waste-shipment rules — EU regulations governing which countries outside the OECD may receive specified waste exports, including scrap metal.

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