TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-01

4 min read

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-01

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market is unchanged for a sixth session: the freshest verified physical evidence sits near $417/MT CFR Port Qasim, inside a recent $416–420/MT range, while UK and EU supplier offers hold at $420–425/MT. The shipping picture is mixed: Gulf oil exports have recovered and fuel-oil supply at Fujairah is improving, but three tankers were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, so route risk has not gone away. Pakistani inland fuel costs fell again.

No newer public Pakistan shredded trade was verified. SMM’s Port Qasim shredded assessment has history through 30 September and BigMint dated a 1 October Turkiye HMS 80:20 assessment, but the numeric values of both sit behind paywalls. Fastmarkets’ next weekly index is due Friday 2 October.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imported shredded — physical range $416–420/MT CFR; UK and EU offers $420–425/MT, a gap of roughly $3–8/MT. Buyers are resisting anything above the physical band.
  • Oil — December Brent traded near $101/bbl and WTI near $92 after China suspended most oil-product exports.
  • Currency and fuel — the Pakistani rupee closed near 277.10 per US dollar (277.11 the day before). Petrol was cut to PKR 387.40 and diesel to PKR 400.35 per litre from 1 October, PKR 8.18 below the 28 September diesel level, which lowers inland trucking costs.

Freight and shipping

  • Hormuz: three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were hit by unknown projectiles while transiting the strait earlier in the week — direct evidence that transit risk remains material.
  • Gulf exports: Gulf oil exports, including dark-fleet cargoes, recovered to about 23.3 million barrels per day over the prior week, broadly in line with the 2025 average. That helps energy availability but is not proof that container freight into Pakistan has normalised.
  • Bunker fuel: Fujairah’s third-quarter fuel-oil imports rose to 2.6 million tonnes from 845,000 tonnes in the second quarter. Bunker activity has improved but remains below pre-war levels; very-low-sulphur fuel oil supply is still tight, while high-sulphur fuel oil is comparatively well supplied. Which fuel a carrier’s surcharge is linked to matters.
  • Port Qasim: active — four vessels scheduled to sail and seven to berth on 1 October, including container ships at the QICT and QT2 terminals.

Supplier markets

  • Offer levels: UK and EU shredded offers have held at $420–425/MT for six sessions; suppliers are looking to Turkiye, the U.S. and Canada as alternative origins.
  • UAE: Dubai Customs Notice No. 13/2026, a temporary restriction on specified scrap exports, remains in force through 8 October 2026 unless cancelled or renewed.
  • EU: the consultation on the Commission’s draft non-OECD waste list stays open until 16 October 2026. Under the new rules, covered waste exports to non-OECD countries generally stop from 21 May 2027 unless authorised. This is a draft, not current law; EU exports of e-waste to non-OECD countries are already prohibited.

Non-ferrous snapshot

LME copper’s latest publicly visible close was $14,425.50/MT (30 September), with exchange copper stocks near 248,000 tonnes. SMM has suspended its Chinese domestic price assessments from 1–7 October for the National Day holiday while overseas assessments continue — a data gap, not a sign of market inactivity. Reuters reports that China’s refined copper output growth is expected to slow sharply this year on tight concentrate and scrap feedstock. With copper in the mid-$14,000s, formula-based pricing tied to exact LME references remains important.

Glossary

  • CFR — cost and freight; the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port, the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
  • Port Qasim — Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal, near Karachi.
  • Shredded (ISRI 211) — processed scrap of consistent size and density, the main containerised grade into Pakistan.
  • VLSFO / HSFO — very-low-sulphur and high-sulphur fuel oil, the two main marine bunker fuels that carriers’ fuel surcharges are linked to.
  • HSD — high-speed diesel, the main fuel cost for inland trucking in Pakistan.
  • LME — London Metal Exchange, the benchmark venue for base-metal prices used in scrap pricing formulas.
  • Non-OECD waste-shipment rules — EU regulations governing which countries outside the OECD may receive specified waste exports, including scrap metal.

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