Daily Market Note — 2026-09-16

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market held its recent level for a fifth session while Gulf shipping risk sharpened into a harder number — Hormuz vessel traffic fell to a fraction of its ten-day average — even as oil itself eased slightly on a surprise US inventory build.

No fresh Pakistan shredded transaction was reported through the week, leaving the market anchored at $418/MT CFR Port Qasim (the freshest verified trade, from 11 September) with a recent range of $417–420/MT and asks around $420, premium targets $425. Strait of Hormuz commodity-vessel crossings fell to four on Tuesday, down from seven on Monday and well below the ten-day average of eighteen, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline outage continued and some September-loading Saudi crude cargoes to Europe stayed cancelled. Brent crude eased to $107.82/bbl, down from the prior session’s high-$108 range, after US crude inventories unexpectedly rose 7.1 million barrels against a forecast 1.6-million-barrel draw — a rare bearish supply datapoint inside an otherwise tightening freight-risk picture. Turkey’s imported scrap market continued firming, with HMS 1&2 80:20 assessed near $395/MT CFR, up further on the week ahead of October restocking demand.

Key moves

• Pakistan imported shredded — no new transaction for a fifth straight session; anchor holds at $418/MT CFR Port Qasim; working range $417–420/MT CFR; asks near $420, premium targets $425.
• Turkey — HMS 1&2 80:20 assessed near $395/MT CFR, continuing the week’s firming trend on October restocking demand; Turkish scrap imports ran roughly 4% higher year on year in January–July, with crude-steel production up roughly 8%.
• India — Alang melting-scrap prices held stable day on day despite subdued buying; regional imported-scrap markets remained firm.
• Pakistan domestic — H1 2026 ferrous-scrap imports ran roughly 11% higher year on year at ~1.67 million tonnes even as crude-steel output fell roughly 26% year on year; mills are reported operating around 30–50% utilisation, with several shut.
• Currency and fuel — the Pakistani rupee closed essentially flat against the US dollar; retail diesel and petrol both stand at fresh highs after the latest fuel-price revision.

Freight and shipping

Hormuz traffic is now a hard, sourced number rather than a qualitative read, and it points to continued disruption even as oil itself softened on a supply-side surprise.

• Strait of Hormuz: commodity-vessel crossings fell to four on Tuesday, from seven on Monday, against a ten-day average of eighteen.
• Bab el-Mandeb: crossings held around twenty-two vessels.
• Saudi pipeline: the East-West oil pipeline outage remains a live risk, with export-terminal inventories reported to cover only a handful of days if the outage continues; a US energy official has said he expects the pipeline to return within days, though no confirmed restart timetable has been published.
• Oil: Brent traded around $107.82/bbl, WTI around $104.86/bbl, both easing slightly after a surprise US crude-inventory build.
• Destination operations: Port Qasim’s published shipping programme shows active container and bulk vessel operations with no reported sailing, berthing, or shifting cancellations.
• Carrier surcharges: the revised Far East Asia → Pakistan peak-season surcharge of $2,000 per 40ft/45ft container (up from $1,500) took effect 15 September for most covered origins, with South Korea following from 18 September; the revision does not apply to spot bookings and no revised 20ft figure has been published. Middle East → Pakistan remains $2,050 per 20ft and $3,500 per 40ft/40HC/45HC.

Supplier markets

A temporary UAE restriction on ferrous, copper, and aluminium scrap exports remains scheduled through 8 October, with possible exemptions for pre-existing contracts. The European Commission has dropped its previously discussed plan for a 15% aluminium-scrap export duty, reportedly over concerns raised by India, and is instead leaning on the existing Waste Shipment Regulation framework for future non-OECD scrap controls — this does not amount to a new export ban today. Pakistan remains among the countries that have applied to keep receiving specified non-hazardous EU waste streams, with the Commission’s first published list of authorised non-OECD countries still due by 21 November 2026; the EU’s separate ban on e-waste exports to non-OECD countries has been in force since 1 January 2025. Fastmarkets’ Pakistan shredded index remains on its new weekly (Friday) publication schedule, with the first assessment under the revised schedule due 18 September.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Latest official LME cash-settlement and three-month reference levels remain Friday’s, 11 September (markets were closed over the weekend); overnight and intraday sessions since have traded broadly lower:

• Copper — cash $14,238.50/t (11 Sep official); overnight 15 September session settled around $14,024.50/t, with LME copper inventory rising to 249,225 tonnes and the near-term curve moving further into contango.
• Zinc — cash $4,015/t (11 Sep official); overnight 15 September session settled around $3,804.50/t.
• Aluminium — cash $3,274/t (11 Sep official); 15 September three-month session closed around $3,252.50/t.
• Nickel — cash $16,270/t (11 Sep official); 15 September three-month reference around $16,410/t.
• Lead — cash $1,854/t (11 Sep official); 15 September three-month session closed around $1,880/t.
• Tin — 15 September three-month reference around $52,185/t, after a rebound in trading.

Glossary

• CFR — cost and freight; the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port, the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
• Port Qasim — Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal, near Karachi.
• Shredded — processed scrap of consistent size and density, the main containerised grade into Pakistan.
• HMS 1&2 80:20 — heavy melting scrap in a standard 80:20 grade mix, the benchmark bulk ferrous grade.
• PSS / ECS — peak season surcharge / emergency contingency surcharge, temporary carrier charges added to base ocean freight, quoted per container.
• Cash vs three-month (LME) — cash is the price for immediate delivery; three-month is the standard forward reference. When cash trades above three-month (“backwardation”), it usually signals tight near-term supply; the reverse (“contango”) usually signals ample near-term supply.
• Non-OECD waste-shipment rules — EU regulations governing which countries outside the OECD may receive specified waste exports, including scrap metal, from EU member states.