Daily Market Note — 2026-09-09

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s shredded market produced fresh, verified trades for the first time in several sessions, just as oil crossed a psychological threshold and Gulf shipping risk deteriorated on two routes at once.

Two UK-origin shredded cargoes were reported sold into Port Qasim: a larger parcel around 3,000 MT at $420/MT CFR and a smaller 200 MT parcel at $417/MT CFR, with current offers running $415–420/MT CFR. Market reporting also flagged that tax changes and inspection-related uncertainty are disturbing the trade, with some suppliers said to be pausing loadings pending clarity. Separately, Brent crude crossed $100/bbl for the first time since late July, while both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait saw vessel traffic fall on the same day — a broader-based deterioration than the mixed picture seen earlier in the week.

Key moves

• Pakistan imported shredded — two verified trades reported: $420/MT CFR (~3,000 MT) and $417/MT CFR (200 MT), both Port Qasim; current offers $415–420/MT CFR.
• Regional HMS 80:20 — a New Zealand-origin cargo sold into Chennai at $365/MT CFR; UK-origin material (low impurity) indicated $360–365/MT CFR Chennai; Bangladesh HMS offered $370–375/MT CFR; Turkiye tradeable US-origin/premium HMS around $380–381/MT CFR, with some seller expectations reaching $383–385.
• Bangladesh shredded offered $410–412/MT CFR — below Pakistan’s reported trades, a reminder that destination-specific demand and freight, not just origin cost, drive the gap between markets.
• India domestic — Alang melting scrap eased on weak buying interest while Mandi Gobindgarh firmed the same day, underscoring that Indian domestic scrap direction is regional rather than a single national trend.
• China — spot rebar and scrap markets remained cost- and supply-led rather than showing a confirmed demand-led upturn.

Freight and shipping

Oil crossed a fresh threshold, and Gulf shipping risk worsened on more than one route at the same time.

• Strait of Hormuz: commodity-vessel transits fell to a reported six on Tuesday, down from nine on Monday and well below the recent ten-day average. Bab el-Mandeb traffic also fell, reversing an improvement seen a day earlier. Brent traded above $100/bbl for the first time since 24 July; WTI traded near $94.70/bbl. Reported oil-cargo insurance and war-risk costs for tanker transits through the strait have risen sharply — those figures describe oil-tanker economics specifically and do not translate directly into containerised scrap freight.
• Destination operations: Port Qasim’s public arrivals listing showed no vessels expected at the time of publication — this reflects a scheduling snapshot, not a port closure; the port’s own daily operations record continued container activity.
• Carrier surcharges, unchanged and in force: Middle East → Pakistan emergency contingency surcharges remain $2,050 per 20ft and $3,500 per 40ft/40HC/45HC, in force since 1 September. Far East Asia → Pakistan remains $1,000 per 20ft, $1,500 per 40ft/45ft, confirmed rising to $2,000 per 40ft/45ft from 15 September (South Korea from 18 September) — not applicable to spot bookings, and no revised 20ft figure has been published.
• A reported ~$1,800-per-container freight level out of Malaysia was cited as keeping Malaysian suppliers largely out of the Pakistan market for now.

Supplier markets

A temporary UAE restriction on ferrous, copper, and aluminium scrap exports remains scheduled through 8 October, with possible exemptions for pre-existing contracts and possible extension.

On the regulatory front: the European Commission confirmed that Pakistan has applied to remain eligible to receive specified non-hazardous waste streams from the EU under its revised waste-shipment rules; the Commission’s first authorised non-OECD country list is planned by 21 November 2026, with a prohibition on non-listed streams from 21 May 2027. Separately, the Commission confirmed that all e-waste exports from the EU to non-OECD countries have been prohibited since 1 January 2025 — an already-active rule distinct from the 2027 mechanism. A separate, broader proposed restriction on waste exports (reported to include aluminium scrap) remains under consultation and is not current law.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Latest official LME cash-settlement and three-month reference levels (8 September):

• Copper — cash $14,737/t, three-month $14,705/t; market commentary describes copper as approaching record territory amid tight supply and tariff concerns.
• Zinc — cash $4,110/t, three-month $4,004/t, a $106/t cash premium over three-month.
• Aluminium — cash $3,325/t, three-month $3,319/t; Indian imported aluminium scrap prices were reported firmer week-on-week on tighter supply.
• Nickel — cash $16,675/t, three-month $16,820/t (three-month trades above cash — a contango).
• Lead — cash $1,859/t, three-month $1,906/t.

Glossary

• CFR — cost and freight; the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port, the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
• Port Qasim — Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal, near Karachi.
• Shredded — processed scrap of consistent size and density, the main containerised grade into Pakistan.
• HMS 1&2 80:20 — heavy melting scrap in a standard 80:20 grade mix, the benchmark bulk ferrous grade.
• PSS / ECS — peak season surcharge / emergency contingency surcharge, temporary carrier charges added to base ocean freight, quoted per container.
• Cash vs three-month (LME) — cash is the price for immediate delivery; three-month is the standard forward reference. When cash trades above three-month (“backwardation”), it usually signals tight near-term supply; the reverse (“contango”) usually signals ample near-term supply.
• Non-OECD waste-shipment rules — EU regulations governing which countries outside the OECD may receive specified waste exports, including scrap metal, from EU member states.