Watchlist Priorities — Week of 1 Nov 2026
A plain-English read on where the ferrous scrap and finished-steel complex is leaning this week — direction, thesis, and time horizon only, drawn from public benchmark prints (Kallanish, Fastmarkets, SteelOrbis), published exchange settlements, and industry commentary. No positions, counterparties, or quotes.
This week in one line: Turkish scrap broke out of a long Fastmarkets freeze and ended the week higher, with the heavy-melt level confirmed by all three publishers but the shredded premium seen only at Kallanish; Pakistan’s published index ticked up on its 23 Oct print and the 30 Oct print is still to come; shipping-risk headlines stayed loud while oil stayed high and scrap prices did not react; and zinc led a mixed week for base metals.
Long / Bullish
- Turkish import scrap — a transaction-led step up: Fastmarkets’ US-origin HMS 80:20 (MB-STE-0417) fell to $386.49 on 26 Oct data, rebounded to $398.89 on 27 Oct and held on 29 Oct, ending the week +$4.17 (+1.1%); Fastmarkets shredded (MB-STE-0095) followed to $414.08. Kallanish went further, shredded $414.0 to $419.0 and general HMS $394.0 to $398.5. The HMS 80:20 level is within $0.39 across Fastmarkets, Kallanish and SteelOrbis. Horizon: this week.
- Iron ore — firmer: SteelOrbis’ physical 62% Fe CFR China rose about 1.6% to $93.20 and Kallanish KORE 61% Fe CFR Qingdao about 1.3% to $90.89 on 29 Oct data. Horizon: this month.
- Zinc and aluminium: LME cash zinc rose about 4.2% to $3,880/t and aluminium about 1.3% to $3,064/t over the week. Horizon: this week.
Short / Bearish
- Turkish rebar — still easing: SteelOrbis’ Turkey export band slipped to $590–605 FOB (about -1.2% at the midpoint) on 27 Oct data and held on 29 Oct; Kallanish’s FOB line was unchanged at $607.5. Softer finished steel is the first thing that would pressure Turkish scrap. Horizon: this week.
- US export-yard scrap — easing while Turkey rose: Fastmarkets New York FOB HMS 80:20 fell $5.50 (-1.6%) to $348.50 and shredded $4.00 (-1.1%) to $370.00 on the 28 Oct assessment. Horizon: this week.
- Nickel: LME cash nickel fell about 3.1% to $15,550/t and has slid every session since the 21 Oct spike. Horizon: this week.
Neutral / Watching
- Pakistan (published CFR Port Qasim shredded index, Fastmarkets MB-STE-0887) — a small rise, then the next print: the index printed $415.35 on 23 Oct (+$1.28, +0.3%), its first rise after two easings and still about $4 under the September average; India’s Nhava Sheva shredded index rose $0.92 the same day. The 30 Oct assessment has not yet reached us, so Turkey’s step up has no Pakistan print against it. Offers heard in the market are context, not a price level, and an unobserved price is unavailable, not unchanged. Horizon: this week.
- Turkish shredded premium — one publisher only: Kallanish shredded is $4.92 above Fastmarkets (it was $0.42 on 27 Oct data); Fastmarkets was flat on the last print. Horizon: this week.
- Gulf shipping risk — loud in headlines, absent from scrap prices: Brent was about $117.6 on 30 Oct (the expiring December contract; the rolled January contract was about $113.4), against about $116.7 a week earlier, and 19 navigational warnings remain active in the Gulf; public reporting cites a further tanker attack near the Strait of Hormuz on 30 Oct. No scrap price moved on it, so the risk sits in freight and offer terms rather than assessments. Horizon: this week.
- Credit conditions in Pakistan: Pakistan’s central bank is reported to have raised its policy rate to 12.00% from 11.50% effective 27 Oct, tightening importer credit at the margin. Horizon: this month.
- Regulation — EU, Thailand: the European Commission’s draft non-OECD waste-export list is still a draft; Pakistan is not proposed for metal waste, any restriction would apply from 21 May 2027, and sources differ on when the first list is due (end-2026 or 21 Nov). Thai media report a Customs recommendation to restrict scrap imports; no operative instrument has been verified. Horizon: this quarter.
- Steel output context: worldsteel’s 23 Oct release put September global crude steel at 142.4 Mt (-0.2% y/y). Lagged output, not a scrap price. Horizon: this quarter.
What to watch next
- Does Pakistan’s published index follow Turkey up when the 30 Oct assessment arrives, or stay near $415?
- Does Fastmarkets confirm Kallanish’s Turkish shredded premium, or does the gap close?
- Does softer Turkish rebar start to pull Turkish scrap back down?
- Do US export yards turn higher, as US domestic sentiment for November suggests?
- Do carriers change written routing or war-risk terms, and does the EU list date become clear?